Finding time to plan my day

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I’ve made a small change in my daily schedule and it’s already reaping huge rewards for me.

Lately, I’ve been struggling a lot with just keeping the basics of my life in order as my job is gotten crazier and crazier.  Before this week, I would wake up around 7 AM, take the dog out, hit the shower, and head to work after getting quickly dressed. From alarm to starting the engine, it was roughly a 30 minute process.  By the nature of the industry I’m in (there’s always someone at my work doing something), when I arrive at work, I already am facing a dozen emails to respond to – some important, others not so much but still requiring some sort of reply. Any time I thought I would have to do administrative tasks at the office would already be gone by just playing catch-up from the new fires that just popped up during my commute or overnight.

Given this, I think that the only way that I can really feel like I have control my day is to spend a little bit of time planning my day.  I’ll never to have control over my day 100% and I’m never going to be able to spend eight hours doing exactly what I thought I’d be doing. It’s just not the nature of my job anymore. However, I do think that it is important to at least start the day with an idea what you can realistically get done and not get done and push the lesser items off until tomorrow.  I’m now getting up an hour earlier than I used to, drinking copious amounts of coffee, and spending some time in OmniFocus & reading through my email – really sorting through what I’m going to be doing that day. Once I know what I need to do (and what I actually can do), I block that time off in my work calendar for each task, ensuring that things get done.  And it’s working.

It’s only been about two weeks but I’m much more relaxed and feel like I’m ‘in control’ of my day a bit more.  Funny how spending just a half hour thinking about how you are going to spend each hour of your day, blocking it out on your calendar, and prioritizing tasks (for the inevitable moment where something gets pushed back because of a fire or emergency meeting) helps you feel in control of anything that comes your way, because you’ve done the extra legwork to make sure the demands of the day line up with the reality of time & attention available.

Google’s Nexus 7

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Every year or so, usually around Google I/O, I like to see what’s new in the Android world. As a big fan of Apple stuff, sometimes it’s easy to get the blinders on and not see what the competition is doing well or differently. With that said, I think that iOS is losing ground as an OS in some ways to Android, and it might actually be a result of focusing too much on Google. Little geeky things like UI customization and control over notifications and intents make the experience in Android land better than that of an iDevice when you pick one up for the first time. The app war still skews heavily towards Apple and will for some time, so it’s not like I’m looking to switch teams or anything, but I am always intrigued by advances in the mobile space. Obviously, there’s a downside to ‘fiddly’, over-customizable systems as well, but I really like what Google is doing with their ‘Google Now’ product, newfound focus on consistent UI, and bringing the Android Market under the ‘Play’ umbrella.

If you’re a tech nerd you’ve no doubt heard about the new Google tablet, the Nexus 7. It’s the same form factor as the Kindle Fire and other 7″ tablets, but this model is straight from Google. Most notable about that is that the latest and greatest software version (‘Jelly Bean’, v4.1) is loaded up and it’s a pretty impressive compared to older versions of the Android software (even 4.0). The other item that is making waves is the price point, a relatively affordable $199 with a $25 Google Play store credit for the 8gb version. Nobody in their right mind is comparing this against an iPad straight up, but this is obviously intended to kneecap the Kindle Fire momentum and get folks thinking about buying a cheaper iPad 2 to take pause. This is a good thing. Competition will force Google, Apple, and anyone else trying to make inroads in the phone/tablet market to push harder to bring consumers what they want.

So, being the gadget geek that I am, I got my hands on a Nexus 7.

I’ve had a little bit of time to mess around with the Nexus and I left intrigued. It’s a fairly well known fact that I’m a bit of an Apple enthusiast – owning an iPad, iPhone, Apple TV, iMac and a few iPods amongst other things will do that – but I’m also not going to blindly bash another product based on that. Admittedly, the pre-4.0 Android phones have, for the most part, been inferior to iPhones for my needs. The OS was slow and jittery, battery life was generally sub par, and build quality was (depending on vendor) cheap. There were exceptions to be sure, but most of the Android-based phones and tablets I used were comically bad. Things have changed a bit since then, however. Google partnered with ASUS to build this tablet and I’ve been pretty impressed with the speed, build quality, and overall look and feel of the device. I really dig the way it feels in your hand – it’s perfect for reading, browsing the web, or checking up on a calendar. There is a rubber backing that is grippy but doesn’t feel cheap.

After a weekend of use, here’s what I can report about not only the Nexus, but also Android 4.1 from the perspective of an iOS user:

Pro

First, the pros. There are a lot of things I really like about the Nexus 7 – it’s fast, the OS is a bit of a change from what I’m used to but overall I like it a lot.

  • The system wide sharing. Any app can opt into this, and it’s really awesome.
  • Background updates for apps like Evernote, Instapaper, etc. Less time manually updating, more time just using.
  • Widgets are kind of gimmicky but a nice option.
  • Obviously the system wide google integration is fantastic.
  • If you are a tinkerer and enjoy tweaking settings, this is the device for you.
  • Google Now seems like a neat idea but I’m yet to see it show up much.
  • $25 Google Play gift cert!
  • Auto updating apps. You don’t need to wait to be told updates are available, the updates just work.
  • I absolutely love the form factor of the device. It’s a fantastic weight and fits in your hand perfectly.
  • In a lot of ways you feel very ‘in control’ of an Android device in ways you don’t an iOS device. This isn’t completely a pro, but it does help with things like downloads, seeing what is killing your battery, etc.
  • Side loading of apps is a really neat feature. I’m still waiting and hoping that Apple implements a feature similar to what we see in Mountain Lion (but I’m not counting on it)

Con

However, it’s not all fun and games. There are a lot of little quality issues and they add up to make a great experience just ‘good’.

  • Keyboard auto complete not as good. The suggestions above the keyboard are nice, however.
  • Text selection in general is fussy and slow. Copying and pasting is a chore.
  • The entire OS isn’t as smooth as iOS is (even with generally beefy specs) and generally feels “cheaper” than an iOS device. ‘Project Butter’ was a big step forward for Android, it scrolling is still not quite there.
  • The lack of good system fonts really shows through. In general, the user is dealing with either serif or sans serif fonts, and that’s all.
  • Back button. I never quite understand where I am going to go when I press the system-wide back button. Maybe this gets easier to understand over time.
  • Speakers are average at best on the device.
  • While Google Music has a web based interface, which I do like, it forces the user to upload ALL of their music to the cloud – there is no “matching” like iTunes Match can do. Took 4 days.
  • This will be addressed soon I’m sure, but most Nexus apps are scaled up versions of phone apps.
  • This is a generalization, but the attention to detail in most Android apps just isn’t the same as you’ll see in iOS.  When you’re dealing with a glass rectangle, software generally trumps hardware.  I feel like iOS software currently trumps it’s Android counterpart.
  • It’s nearly impossible to type in in landscape. This is a portrait device.
  • Holy cow, the iPad seems huge now.
  • In the same vein about being ‘in control’, in other ways you quickly get overwhelmed with preferences, auto-updating settings and other issues that end up killing your battery.
  • Apple got it right with push notifications. Setting each app to auto-update on it’s own schedule is tedious and can slowly kill your battery before you know what happened.
  • Build quality of the Nexus just isn’t up to par of the iPad but considering it’s more than half the cost, this shouldn’t’ be a surprise.  I actually had to return mine due to some ‘ghosting’ issues on the screen.
  • Overall, I admire the open source nature of Android but the bottom line is most of the services that make Android great are not open at all, and could be taken away at any moment (google music, gmail, google calendar, etc). I’m always dealing with a tiny bit of anxiety when working with Google products for this reason. The best apps for Android appear to be the ones bundled with the OS, and for iOS it’s quite the contrary.

Conclusion

It’s going to be hard for anyone to beat what Google has put together at this price point. The device is high quality, fast, and is a fantastic form factor. Using it for a week or so has been a very nice experience, but ultimately one that makes me appreciate iOS even more. There are definitely features and paradigms in the Android world i would love to see in iOS but ultimately things still just feel a little ‘cheap’. I will say this, however: with Android 4.1, it’s the first time I’d be ok with using an android phone if need be. That alone is a huge endorsement of a product that felt like a really, really bad copy of iOS as recently as a year ago.

Things are generally fast and beginning to show a level of polish you’d expect the giant that is Google could produce. I would definitely recommend this device to anyone looking for a nice, affordable tablet.

Sublime Text 2

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I’ve come to realize that I’m no longer a tinkerer. As I said in a recent post, I’m done fiddling with software and hardware. What I didn’t mention was that there was one exception – text editors. Being in the industry that I’m in, I spend a ton of my time writing and formatting text. In the search for the perfect environment to perform these tasks, I’ve spend a considerable amount of money trying to track down the perfect piece of software to help me quickly and easily move through my day. A great text editor helps you do so many little things that, on their surface, don’t really seem like much. But all of those little automated tasks and nifty shortcuts add up real fast.

This actually started out as a review of Coda 2. However, somewhere between the time where I got excited about the upcoming editor from Panic (announced last fall) and today, I started trying out a little editor called Sublime Text 2. While I purchased and really do think that Coda 2 is a fine editor, it’s going to be difficult to pull me away from all of the little things that make Sublime Text such an amazing editor.

Coda 2.0 is, in nearly every measurable way, a huge upgrade over Coda 1.x. However, I can’t shake the feeling that it’s a text editor designed for people who currently use Dreamweaver and are looking for something better. There’s no way else to say it without sounding like ‘that guy’, but it feels like a text editor with training wheels. Advanced web developers need more customizability, more keyboard shortcuts, more speed, and better syntax highlighting/checking/coloring for the $99 price tag that Coda retails for.  Further, the app’s major feature is an inline preview feature that sounds great but is fiddly due to the fact that most developers are working in enviornments that  aren’t really suited to one static file that you can just tab over to and preview.  I know you can tweak the Coda preferences to allow for this to work a bit better, but it’s not quite as elegant once you get into even slightly advanced workflows.

So then, what makes Sublime Text 2 so great? In a lot of ways, ST2 is a spiritual successor to TextMate – it’s a lightweight, extensible, fast text editor with an amazing community.  Nearly the entire UI can be customized, from the ‘chrome’ colors (you can make the UI light or dark or nearly anything in between), to the tab behavior, to the editor colors, error alert delays, etc.  It’s really as simple or as powerful as you’d like it to be.  Of course, it’s a fantastic text editor too.  The document overview feature allows you to quickly scroll and find that one function or bit of code you’re looking for.  Code completion, hinting and formatting work very similarly to how TextMate operates, and is highly customizable.

Being the dork that I am, the great text editor features only scratch the surface. Not only does it work the way I expect it to in nearly every way, it also has all of the little automatic features that I absolutely love. For example, you can drag your support folder to Dropbox and have a synced environment, preferences and all, between multiple machines. ST2 also has a package manager that is github-powered, keyboard activated, and has auto-updating technology so you’re always up to date.

Everything is powered by a command pallette that allows you to issue commands like svn updates, search for file names to open/preview, search css selectors or function names, and so much more. Not having to take your hands off of the keyboard is a huge productivity gain, and makes the interface very extensible. For example, I have added a handful of great extensions to the editor that do inline syntax checking/coloring, bracket highlighting, svn status updates, allow for sftp support, automatically add all vendor prefixes to css3 properties, and much more. Editors like Coda allow for plugins but it’s a process that never sees updates and generally doesn’t feel integrated into the editor.

Initially, I hated one feature of Sublime Text but have grown to love it. Instead of a standard preferences dialog with checkboxes, ST2 keeps all of its preferences in JSON arrays that are specific to each plugin, theme, or for the general app. While it does take a bit to get used to it, it makes it really easy to back up prefs or tweak things exactly the way you want to. The only things I can really say against ST2 is that a lot of preference changes require a restart, which can be disruptive to your workflow. Otherwise, any missing feature from Coda, BBEdit or TextMate is generally a quick search away.

There’s not a ton of great documentation from the developer (yet?) but there are some great blog posts with more info if Sublime Text is your sort of thing. The app costs $59 but has an ‘unlimited’ trial while you’re evaluating. It’s a per-user license so you can use it on Windows, Mac or PC.  I’ve used a ton of editors over the years and this is the first one that doesn’t have a glaring weakness in my mind.  As I mentioned above, this started out as me listing the pros and cons of Coda 2, but I quickly realized that in this increasingly complicated web development world, we don’t often have a single static page open that allows us to take advantage of most of the features that the Panic guys have included in their flagship editor.  If you spend your days in a text editor on the PC, Mac or Linux, I highly recommend checking this little beauty out.

How good is UGA’s defense?

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I respect what UGA has been able to do defensively this year, but it’s an understatement to say the SEC has been down this year, and UGA has had the fortune of not having to play any of the good teams in the West.  So, how good is the UGA defense, really?  I went through their games and threw out the Coastal Carolina game.  I listed the yards the Bulldogs gave up vs the opponent’s yearly average.

  1. Boise 390yds / (475 avg) -85yds
  2. USCe 395yds / (361 avg) +34yds
  3. Coastal Carolina (FCS) 112yds / (305 avg)
  4. Ole Miss 183yds / (296 avg) -113yds
  5. Miss St 213yds / (372 avg) -159yds
  6. Tennessee 270yds / (342 avg) -72yds
  7. Vandy 349yds / (334 avg) +5yds
  8. Florida 226yds / (337 avg) -111yds
  9. New Mexico St 402yds / (424 avg) -20yds
  10. Auburn 195yds / (338 avg) -143yds
  11. Kentucky 165yds / (263 avg) -98yds

Total: 83 few yards per game on defense, which translates to roughly a 1.20 yard per play differential over the course of the season given the average number of plays being run by their opponents (more if you count Coastal Carolina, but I don’t think it’s relevant).

That’s a pretty impressive differential.  If UGA can keep Tech’s rushing average under 4.5 yards per rush (the Jackets currently average 5.85 yards per rush and 11 yards per pass attempt), they will be in position to force the Jackets into 3rd and medium situations that the Jackets do not excel at.  I think that if you’re Tech, you have to be mindful of how sound the UGA defense has been this year and focus on getting yards on first down – don’t get too cute early, build momentum and get into 3rd and short situations that are manageable.

More to come Wednesday regarding position battles.

Hokie Time

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The key to this game is going to be the interior run game of both teams.

Tech has a history of getting gashed (although, the past 2 games they have done a remarkable job against 2 teams that run the ball quite well), and David WIlson is one of the top backs in the ACC, if not the country.  If the Jackets can keep the Hokies less than 4.0 ypp on the ground, that means GT is in good shape.  This means that not only must Tech contain Wilson and force predictable 3rd down situations, they must also keep QB Logan Thomas in the pocket and not allow him to pick up yards on the ground.  He’s a big, physical guy who can move the chains if things break down and it’ll be up to the linemen to keep him in the pocket and make him throw the ball.

Offensively for Tech, a few bread and butter plays should help them exploit the (alleged) changes being made by VT for this game of putting in smaller, athletic linemen to counter Tech’s option game.  This is a rare game where the Jackets will have a size advantage up front and they should try to exploit it by running multiple variants of the inverted veer, midline option, and the QB draw.

This play has been used increasingly by Tech as the season has gone on, and I love the simplicity of it.  It does a few things well – it gives GT flexibility in passing situations to run or pass, it forces linebackers to respect the possibility of a run/pass as the A-backs streak towards them, and it tends to get the Jackets a fairly easy 5+ yards per play.  When run correctly, both A-backs run break up field on the snap as if it were a pass play, and the B-back stays in the block the backside.  Once the QB has dropped back to a 3 step drop to throw the ball, a Tackle peels off and blocks either the middle or outside linebacker (depends on if the defense is in an over or under look, assuming we’re talking a base 4-3).  The A-backs cut the other 2 linebackers and the QB runs upfield into the void created.  In the past month, this play has been used more and more by the Jackets and going against an aggressive and undersized VT defense will be a good opportunity to exploit this again in potential pass situations.

The other benefit is the tendency to have linebackers always thinking about the draw out of pass looks; this should allow an A-back to sneak behind one of the Hokie LBs for a big gain.  When used properly, it sets up Run & Shoot concepts like the switch and the go.

I certainly feel more confident about this game than I did 2 weeks ago, but I’m still not sure that the Jackets can do enough on offense to win this game.  It’s going to take another near flawless effort like they had against Clemson to pull this one out.  The numbers certainly appear to be one of those “something has to give” contests:

GT offensive ypp: 7.0, 5.89 on the ground

VT defense: 4.8ypp, 2.9 on the ground

Splitting the difference, that’s still in the 4ypp average for GT, which is enough to win.  If the Jackets can stay above that number and keep the Hokies below that number on the ground, I think it’ll be enough to win another huge contest.  A small note, since Attaochu returned, the run defense has been much better, averaging 3.4 ypp instead of roughly 5.6 ypp. It’ll be interesting to see if Tech can do enough to mix it up on offense and control the clock.

I think the Jackets win the battle of the Techs, 31-24.

Falling into place

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If you read this blog, you surely know that Georgia Tech played their most complete game of the year, and in the process beat #5 Clemson 31-17 on Saturday night.  Nobody thought that Clemson was unbeatable, but most thought that the speed and playmaking ability that the Tigers possessed would simply be too much.  For Tech to come out on top, they’d have to execute well and not put themselves in a hole like they did the previous 2 weeks, starting out down 14 in both games.

The game plan against Clemson was fairly simple:

  1. Limit Clemson’s plays.  Clemson lead the nation is number of plays per game, and every time the ball is in their explosive playmakers’ hands, it spells possible trouble.  Eating the clock and forcing the Tigers to earn every yard was key.  This meant that offensively GT needed to control the clock and defensively they had to wrap up and tackle well.  They did both extremely well.  Clemson was held to 65 plays, nearly 14 plays less than their season average (78.25).
  2. Make the Tigers fairly one-dimensional by taking away the run game.  Most of Clemson’s offense is predicated on motion before the snap, causing confusion.  By shutting down the running options, GT was able to negate a lot of that misdirection and keep Boyd in situations he’s still not 100% comfortable in.  Tech held the Tigers to 95 yards, well off of their average for the season.
  3. Big plays.  Coming into this game, Tech was not making splash plays on either side of the ball.  Forcing 4 turnovers and breaking off huge runs and a few bombs certainly helped in that area.

Those were the 3 ‘keys’ to the game in my mind going into Saturday night’s contest.

Full disclosure: I haven’t watched the replay of the game yet so I haven’t really analyzed everything I’d like to, but from the stands a few things really stood out to me.

  • For the first time since early in the Maryland game, Tevin Washington looked confident in what he was doing.  He didn’t look afraid to make mistakes, he appeared to be decisive with his pitches (and obviously did a great job not pitching as well), and put the team in positions where they could convert manageable third downs.  This offense doesn’t require a QB to be superman, but it does require him to be competent and decisive.
  • Jemea Thomas is going to be a star for this team.  They have to find a way to get the young fella on the field more.
  • From what I could tell, Nick McRae did a fantastic job filling in at center.  I saw numerous plays where he absolutely dominated up front.  The line did a solid job in general, but I was really worried about how McRae would perform.
  • Sims and Lyons both had really solid games.  Combined, the B-Back position ran 24 times for 110 yards.  Nothing to get too excited about, but that commitment to the interior game opened up a lot of things on the outside down near the goal line and allowed Washington to sell the dive then pull/run for big gains.
  • One thing I noticed was that the Clemson DEs both had trouble committing when they were being optioned.  Instead of committing to either attacking the B-back or the Quarterback, they were content to play wait-and-see.  That didn’t work out.
  • I have no idea how the refs blew the potential game-changing offisides/forced fumble when Tech was poised to go up big.  Instead, Clemson recovers and marches down for a score.
  • It’s absolutely shameful how many Georgia Tech fans sold their tickets on StubHub and the like to Clemson fans.  My friends and I are in section 121 and it was 20% Clemson fans.  Some sections were better than others, but it was still awful.  Guess folks just figure they can buy the good seats and make money off of them?

I’m planning on re-watching the game and I’ll have more detailed insight in a few days.

The big win puts GT back into the top 25 and sets the stage for a big showdown against Virginia Tech in a little less than 2 weeks.  The Jackets can rest up and hopefully not read too many press clippings about their win before the Thursday night showdown.

See you at the crossroads

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As Tech enters the toughest stretch of the season, the team is at a bit of a crossroads.  A team that was steamrolling opponents and scoring nearly 50 points per game, completing over 60% of its passes and playing overall average defense has regressed into a team that has scored 21 points each of the past 2 weeks, have completed 30% of their passes, and are giving up huge running averages to opponents.  If the Jackets can’t get back to near where they were earlier this season, things could start to fall apart real quick.

Miami is always a challenge, and I fully expect the Canes to get their yards running the ball against the Jackets, but what Tech has to excel at today is keeping the pass game in check.  Jacory Harris is having a remarkable stretch right now and if GT lets Miami play balanced football, I fear this game could turn ugly.  Tech has been getting gashed week in and week out by ACC backs, giving up over 250 last week to Virginia.  Forcing Miami into predictable situations can help at least slow down the run game.

On Tech’s side, I hope to see more creativity on offense – Miami is not good against the run this year, and GT needs to use a lot of misdirection to break some big plays to take advantage of Miami’s overall ineptitude against the run & hopefully break a few big plays in the process.  While there is no excuse for a lot of the dropped passes that GT A-backs and WRs have had recently, Tevin Washington also needs to stop just chunking the ball up and allowing teams to pick the ball off.  Tech’s defense is average as it is and allowing teams extra possessions only makes matters worse.  If the Jackets can keep Miami off balance and control the clock, that should give their defense enough to hold on to win this one.

Most experts are picking this game to be close, but I get the feeling that one team is going to lay an egg this week.  Based on Paul Johnson’s statements this week, they’ve had some good practices and this team seems to play like it practices.  Tech should be able to milk the clock – that’s a given.  However, they’re also going to need to get back to their big-play ways, getting some quick game changing scores to put more pressure on Miami to get away from their running game.

I can see this being a back and forth affair until one team pulls away in the 3rd/4th quarter and wins by about 14-17 points.  This game means a lot of both teams but I think GT out coaches Miami and gets a huge win on the road, setting up a titanic showdown with Clemson next week.  Further, it means that Tech ‘simply’ needs to be VT and Duke and they’re in the ACC title game.

Tech wins, 38-24.

Stats are for losers

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I expected Tech to slowly lose potency leading up to the the Clemson game, but I was hoping that they’d be able to pull out big wins at UVA and Miami.  However, if you take a quick glance at the two charts below, you can get an idea of the statistical decline since the Kansas game.

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The Jackets have only had good success statistically against one team in that period, UNC.  Washington completed 71% of his passes for 184 yards and Tech rolled up nearly 500 yards against one of the better ACC defenses.  After that game, the drop has been dramatic, culminating in this week’s loss: 14 offensive points, 272 yards rushing and only 24 yards passing (at a 25% completion rate).

It’s really impossible to really figure out if the decline was self-inflicted or due to increased competition, but I have a feeling that it’s a bit of both.  Virginia has talent to be sure, and it’s hard to beat any team in their stadium – but let’s face it, GT has a better coaching staff and slightly better talent.  However, the only game that I’d say was even close to a ‘complete game’ so far this year was the MTSU game, and that’s not really all that hard to do.

If the Jackets want to take a strong start and finish with something special, they have to do 3 things, and this week:

  1. Get the passing yards back up in the 50% range.  I’ve been harping on this for weeks and it’s not getting any better, but at this rate last year’s passing stats are going to look downright impressive.  The receivers are starting to drop passes, and that’s inexcusable.  If the other team plays good coverage and breaks up a well-thrown ball, there’s no fault to be given there.  But if Tevin Washington throws a halfway catchable ball and it hits a player’s hands, that needs to be a catch.  Without a threat of a downfield passing game, it gets quite easy to overwhelm a one-dimensional offense, no matter the scheme.
  2. Clean up the run defense.  Logan Walls is just getting bullied, as is the rest of the Tech offensive line, which is allowing the other team’s line to get to the second level and open up huge lanes for backs.  If the Jackets can’t find a way to slow down the run this week, Jacory Harris is going to have a field day in the play action pass game.
  3. Stop making mental mistakes.  Again, this is a coachable thing that the Jackets can fix.  Huge penalties cost GT points in the second half and could have been the difference in the game.  Tech is rarely going to be able to just show up and beat up on a team – they have to play smarter, faster and better than the other guys.  Stupid penalties take away one of the only true advantages Tech has over any team.

In a lot of ways, this game was a perfect storm of things that could work against the Jackets and credit the team for fighting back to tie the Cavs in the second quarter.  However, they had no answer for the running game and I’m not sure they will for the rest of the season.

Nobody thought Tech was going to go undefeated – I predicted an 8-3 record going into the bowl season and I still think 8 or 9 wins is about right for a young team that still has some holes that will be exposed against better competition coming up.  However, there isn’t one game on the schedule that I say without a doubt Tech cannot win – but they have to get their act together and start playing smart, efficient football.

Florida State 2011 predictions

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Last year I predicted FSU would finish in the 11-3 range, and I was close. The big miss was Oklahoma, as I really thought they were ready. They were not. This year is different though. After a few great recruiting classes, the Noles seem poised to step back into the national spotlight. I said this about the team’s future prospects last summer:

So that brings us to 10-2, heading to the ACC title game. FSU should lose to VT in that game, and the Noles are a total Jekyll/Hyde sort of team in bowl games, so we could possibly see the season end on a 3 game losing streak. Still, 10-4 or 11-3 seems attainable to me in what is essentially the dawn of the next era of FSU football. I think that next year FSU re-enters the national picture again, but this year is just a bit of buildup for that. The offense is back, and once the defense gets back to the levels they’re capable of, FSU will be an ACC and national power again.

I stand by that, and feel like this is the year that national attention is given early and often to the rising stars in Tallahassee.

The good

Where to start? FSU is absolutely loaded with talent and depth at every position imaginable. For me, the real standouts are going to be the defensive line and secondary, two areas that were feast or famine last year. Returning are a boatload of blue chippers who have grown up mentally and especially physically and are ready to simply dominate teams. EJ Manuel is the rising Junior QB who is a dark horse Heisman contender, and is flanked by a super deep stable of running backs, wideouts and tight ends. The offensive linemen, especially both tackles, are All-American contenders.

Again, just simply stacked everywhere. Watch out for LaMarcus Joyner on D, and Nick O’Leary on offense.

The bad

The offensive line is having trouble staying healthy. Chris Thompson, last year’s leading rusher, has had some back issues. That’s about it.

September

Louisiana-Monroe Body bag game. ULM, a Sun Belt team that should have some young talent, won’t be any match for FSU. I just can’t imagine how ULM keeps this game very close. Not only are the Noles going to be bigger, faster and stronger than ULM, I fully expect the team to focus of jumping out fast to get some of the younger guys game experience. I’m not sure it’ll be like some of the early games from last year where the final score was nearly 60-3, but I’m going to say FSU rolls. Backups in the 3rd quarter.  FSU wins by 35+.

Charleston Southern Let’s face it, you could copy and paste what I wrote above to this section. The only difference is the game with Oklahoma looming. Maybe they take their eyes off of this game a bit. FSU wins by 24.

Oklahoma I’m still not sure how I feel about this game. Last year I said FSU would win a close one. I was dead wrong, and it was one of the only games I really considered turning off multiple times. Just a brutal showing in every phase of the game. I’m still not sure about this game, although I do feel like it’s going to be much closer than last time. Oklahoma tends to roll early in the season and then blow a night road game late in the year. This is not that game. OU has so many weapons and a fantastic quarterback in Landry Jones, who is a legit Heisman contender. Throw in one of the top WR units in the nation and the stacked FSU defense is going to be tested early and often, and I’m not sure they’ll be able to hang for the entire game.

The pressure will really be on FSU to control tempo early, get first downs, and get points. I feel like this game could go either way, but it’ll be interesting to see which defense does enough to win this game. I’m picking Oklahoma – but if FSU in fact wins this game, they’re going to the national title game. Mark it down.  Oklahoma by 3.

@ Clemson Let down alert! IF the Noles were to win the game the week before, it’ll be a huge test to go on the road to one of the tougher stadiums to play in. It’ll be a huge test regardless of course, but the ACC scheduling gods were frowning on the boys from Tallahassee when they put together this one-two punch. On to the Tigers, though. Ex-Tulsa coach Chad Morris heads up the Clemson offense, and Tulsa was absolutely insane to watch last year. The 2010 squad ranted in the top 10 scoring, and the top 5 in yards – and folks expect that to translate to Clemson’s offense this year. Tajh Boyd is the new starting quarterback, and he’s a dual threat guy who could give fits to less athletic teams. With that said, I’m pretty confident that FSU will be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and that should be the difference in the ball game. Despite the potential for a let down, I think the Noles will win fairly comfortably.  FSU wins by 13.

October

@ Wake Forest And now, cruise control. Wake Forest is coming off of their second consecutive losing season, and the cupboard is starting to look bare for the Deacons. This matchup will be a good opportunity to get into a rhythm for a few easy games before some key ACC games.  FSU wins by 21.

@ Duke Copy, paste.  FSU wins by 21+.

Maryland Big game here. Danny O’Brien is a talented QB and FSU could easily have lost the game to the Terps last year. Both teams have improved since last year, FSU with their talent maturing and Maryland with a new coaching staff who will demand sound fundamentals on every single play. I think this game will be a scary one, with FSU winning late – maybe a field goal deciding the contest.  FSU wins by 3.

NC State Revenge for a game FSU really should have won last year. Driving at the end of the contest, Ponder fumbled a play-action at the end of the game to blow it. NCSt has a lot of veteran starters and are well coached – I’ve always been a fan of Tom O’Brien teams. However, they’re not super talented on defense and their special teams appear to be a weakness. FSU will be too much.  FSU wins by 10.

November

@ Boston College Thursday night with no week off before the game … the ACC scheduling gods are back at it. It’ll come down to which team is ready to play. BC is no slouch but they just don’t have the talent to hang for 4 quarters.  FSU wins by 13.

Miami If UM still has a a team to field, this game would be less than a TD between the teams. Lots of senior talent on this team, and if they are all out there, it could be a lot closer than my prediction. However, I’m not counting on it.  FSU wins by 13.

Virginia This is the last home game of the year for what could be an undefeated FSU team. UVA is getting some great recruits and slowly rebuilding their team, but this isn’t the year for them. This is possibly the easiest home game of the year other than the first 2 patsies. FSU wins by 21.

@ Florida Yeah, Florida is down. Guess what, they still are absolutely loaded with blue chippers at every position. If this game were earlier in the year, I could see FSU winning by a few TDs – but this is both team’s final game of the regular season and I think they’ll have figured out the new offensive and defensive schemes that coaches Muschamp and Weis are adding. A lot will be on the line for this game, and FSU will have a ton to play for on the road against a very tough opponent. FSU in a squeaker.  FSU wins by less than 3.

Summary

The ACC schedule looks like a cakewalk, and I realistically can see FSU winning the ACC with 1 loss to a non conference opponent and going to a BCS bowl game. This team is for real, and they’re still very young everywhere except the offensive line. Expect great things this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw the Noles in the national championship conversation this year, next year, and for years to come.

Georgia Tech 2011 predictions

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It’s that time again – college football week 1 is upon us. As I tried last year, I try to predict every game. Last year … let’s just say I was a bit off. I predicted a 10-2 record, going to the Gator or CFA bowl. Whoops.

The good

The defense looks to be much improved over last year’s awful squad – although that’s not really saying much. Further, the B-back and A-back spots are overflowing with talent, and it should be the strength of the team. I think we’ll see Johnson find ways to creatively get all of those young speedy A-backs in space this year as we’re still waiting for consistent WR play. The O-line is deep and young, and should grow into a really solid unit.

The bad

The defense still doesn’t show that it can create sacks or turnovers, and a 3-4 defense is predicated on pressure from various angles. If Tech can’t get pressure with 3 or 4 defenders, it could be another long season. The QB play hasn’t been inspiring yet, with Washington being good but not great.

September

Western Carolina Western Carolina is coming off of an awful 2010 campaign, and the entire team is in disarray. The Catamounts, who are Paul Johnson’s alma mater, are installing a new spread/pistol style offense in the vein of Oklahoma, Oregon and others. Further, they’ve been asking teams for tips on how to defend the Flexbone of Georgia Tech. None of this will matter though, as the only team that can beat Tech on opening night will be Tech.  Tech wins by 4 touchdowns.

@ Middle Tennessee Last year, MTSU came to Atlanta with one of their best players in school history, Dwight Dasher. This athletic quarterback was making waves for his playmaking ability, great decision making, and a lot of folks thought they could come in and steal one from Tech. They nearly did, but on the back of a 4 turnover effort by the GT defense, Tech ran away in the second half with a fairly comfortable win. This year, Middle Tennessee is without Dasher or a capable replacement. Tech’s D should be improved, and I expect this to be another game where the backups get some playing time in anticipation for the big boys.  Tech wins by 3 touchdowns.

Kansas Ah, Kansas. This game was, for most Tech fans last year, the moment where we realized things were not going to be like 2009. The defense couldn’t get off of the field and the offense couldn’t hold onto the ball. To add insult to the road loss, Kansas is and was the worst team in the Big 12 – the week before beating Tech last year, they lost to a FCS school, not even producing a touchdown. This year returns nearly all of the players from last year’s game, with a fairly accurate QB who can scramble, a grinder at running back, and an opportunistic but overall unspectacular defense. If Johnson can’t coach the team up for this game, at home, I’m not sure there’s much hope for this year either.  Tech wins by 7 or less.

North Carolina Two teams have been able to figure out Tech’s offense to some degree in recent years – UNC and Miami. UNC’s defense is absolutely loaded in the front 7 this year with tons of future 1st and 2nd rounders, so I think running the ball might be a tall order. Hopefully the work we’ve seen over the summer with Tevin Washington working on the short passing game to the A-backs, Tech might be able to put pressure on a young secondary. While Washington doesn’t have a strong arm at all, but he is pretty accurate when throwing – kind of the exact opposite of Nesbitt in that regard. Defensively, Tech will be tested by a young but talented QB named Bryn Renner. This highly touted QB hasn’t really done any damage yet, but people expect him to be a quality starter. If GT can get pressure on the young QB early and control the tempo offensively, Tech could win this game. I’d say it’s a toss up, leaning towards UNC though.  UNC wins by 3.

October

@ NC State Last year’s NC State game broke the back of most Tech fans who were expecting any sort of decent season at all. This year’s game will probably be the ACC game that tells you if GT will be an average/above average team or if we’re on our way to another 6-7 sort of campaign. If Tech can beat some of these average teams, they can afford to lose to the more elite squads and still have a good season in what is a transitional year in Atlanta. Gone is Russell Wilson, and in comes Mike Glennon. He’s a talent, but he’s the sort of guy that Tech usually can handle – more of a traditional drop-back style of passer. Tech should be able to run the ball with ease against a pretty soft defense, but the question mark will be Tech’s ability to get off of the field on defense. If they can control the tempo and get some key stops, I think GT could win this game. With it being on the road, I’ll say it’s a toss up with a lean towards GT.  NCST wins by 3.

Maryland Maryland is one year away from being one of the better teams in the ACC. Danny O’Brien is widely thought to be one of the top 3 ACC QBs (not a huge honor but still…), and the skill players are all solid. Defensively, they have a lot of talent and while new coach Randy Edsall isn’t a flashy hire, he’s the sort of guy who will get the most of his team and focus on fundamentals. These teams won’t beat themselves, and the pressure will definitely be on Tech’s defense to put pressure on O’Brien early before he can get into a rhythm. Being at home, I’ll give Tech the nod.  Tech by 10.

@ Virginia Virginia is still in a transitionary period, much like Tech switching defenses and installing a new offense. There’s a ton of talent in Virginia and it’s only a matter of time before UVA is another team to worry about in ACC play. This probably won’t be that year, though. Being on the road, there’s a change Tech drops this one, but I think the grinding running game will be too much for a talented but thin defense.  Tech wins by less than 7.

@ Miami Before the huge scandal dropped in Miami, this wouldn’t be a contest. Miami has talent and even a depleted squad handled GT handily last year in Atlanta. As of right now, Miami is missing it’s starting QB, SS, FS, DE, LB, and WR. Tons of depth will be tested all season long, and while they have the talent to step up, there’s no margin for error or injury for the ‘Canes. These sorts of events usually go one of two ways for teams in turmoil – they either band together and scrape together a solid season, or they completely implode. I’d like to think they’ll fold like a cheap chair, but I think there is still a ton of talent in South Beach to deal with on both sides of the ball. By this time of the season, they’ll know who will be and won’t be playing, so I expect a good effort but depth is an issue. Tech grinds one out and wins a low scoring battle. Tech wins by less than 7.

Clemson Always close.  It’ll be interesting to see if Tech’s D can stop the new up-tempo Chad Morris offense.  Clemson is young but very talented, especially at the skill positions.  I think GT finds a way to run the ball against Clemson and gets enough big plays to hold on.  Tech wins by 7.

November

Virginia Tech My favorite game of the year – it’s always close, and the winner always goes on to win the ACC Coastal. This year should be no exception, as UNC and Miami will be having issues so my feeling is that it’s a 2 team race. Unfortunately, VT is way more talented than GT is this year, with a senior-laden offense and a young, talented defense. The past 4 years the VT defense has gotten gradually worse each season, but even ‘worse’ for VT is a top 25 squad. Most folks expect them to improve this year and be more physical with teams. Tech has always been able to run the ball with some success against the Hokies, and I’m sure this year is no exception. Even on the road last year, Tech was in control of the game before Nesbitt broke his arm. In fact, the game was tied late before that fateful kickoff return for a TD essentially won the game for the Hokies. Gone is Tyrod Taylor, VT’s amazingly talented QB, and in comes Logan Thomas, a huge mountain of a man who is expected to bring a more ‘Cam Newton/Tim Tebow’ style of play to the table. This compliments the speedy David Wilson well, and I expect the running game to be the strength of the offense all year. This one could go either way, but it seems that lately the home team gets the W here. I’ll call it a toss up, lean VT. VT by less than 3.

@ Duke Body bag. Duke is improving and they have some talent on offense, but their defense is laughably bad. Even at Duke, Tech should roll. Tech wins by 17+.

Georgia I think UGA will finish the year near double digit wins, saving Richt’s job in Athens. Doesn’t mean GT can’t run the ball all over UGA like they have in recent years, and as long as they can limit turnovers on offense and play sound defense, I think Tech finally puts it all together and gets another win against their rivals. These games are always close when GT wins, and blowouts when UGA wins. I think GT wins a close one at home. Tech by less than 7.

Summary

That puts tech at 8 wins and 4 losses going into bowl season. Tech hasn’t proven yet they can beat a prepared bowl team, but I think this year they have a shot as they’d be playing a middle-tier school that they should be able to beat up on. God willing, they could get to 9 wins this year, which would be a big turnaround. Even if I miss a few of these games, which is about 100% likely, the feeling I get is that we’ll see an improvement over last year no matter what. Tech has a lot of young talent and this year will be a transition between the last of the old guard of the Chan Gailey era and all of the young folks Johnson has been bringing in. No excuses anymore. Tech isn’t now nor will it be a consistent top 15 team, but they can put together good teams and make 2-3 year runs every decade or so where they are flirting with the top 10 and an ACC title. I think this season is laying the foundation for a young but talented team to get ready for just such a run in the coming few years.