Stats are for losers

I expected Tech to slowly lose potency leading up to the the Clemson game, but I was hoping that they’d be able to pull out big wins at UVA and Miami.  However, if you take a quick glance at the two charts below, you can get an idea of the statistical decline since the Kansas game.

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The Jackets have only had good success statistically against one team in that period, UNC.  Washington completed 71% of his passes for 184 yards and Tech rolled up nearly 500 yards against one of the better ACC defenses.  After that game, the drop has been dramatic, culminating in this week’s loss: 14 offensive points, 272 yards rushing and only 24 yards passing (at a 25% completion rate).

It’s really impossible to really figure out if the decline was self-inflicted or due to increased competition, but I have a feeling that it’s a bit of both.  Virginia has talent to be sure, and it’s hard to beat any team in their stadium – but let’s face it, GT has a better coaching staff and slightly better talent.  However, the only game that I’d say was even close to a ‘complete game’ so far this year was the MTSU game, and that’s not really all that hard to do.

If the Jackets want to take a strong start and finish with something special, they have to do 3 things, and this week:

  1. Get the passing yards back up in the 50% range.  I’ve been harping on this for weeks and it’s not getting any better, but at this rate last year’s passing stats are going to look downright impressive.  The receivers are starting to drop passes, and that’s inexcusable.  If the other team plays good coverage and breaks up a well-thrown ball, there’s no fault to be given there.  But if Tevin Washington throws a halfway catchable ball and it hits a player’s hands, that needs to be a catch.  Without a threat of a downfield passing game, it gets quite easy to overwhelm a one-dimensional offense, no matter the scheme.
  2. Clean up the run defense.  Logan Walls is just getting bullied, as is the rest of the Tech offensive line, which is allowing the other team’s line to get to the second level and open up huge lanes for backs.  If the Jackets can’t find a way to slow down the run this week, Jacory Harris is going to have a field day in the play action pass game.
  3. Stop making mental mistakes.  Again, this is a coachable thing that the Jackets can fix.  Huge penalties cost GT points in the second half and could have been the difference in the game.  Tech is rarely going to be able to just show up and beat up on a team – they have to play smarter, faster and better than the other guys.  Stupid penalties take away one of the only true advantages Tech has over any team.

In a lot of ways, this game was a perfect storm of things that could work against the Jackets and credit the team for fighting back to tie the Cavs in the second quarter.  However, they had no answer for the running game and I’m not sure they will for the rest of the season.

Nobody thought Tech was going to go undefeated – I predicted an 8-3 record going into the bowl season and I still think 8 or 9 wins is about right for a young team that still has some holes that will be exposed against better competition coming up.  However, there isn’t one game on the schedule that I say without a doubt Tech cannot win – but they have to get their act together and start playing smart, efficient football.

Florida State 2011 predictions

Last year I predicted FSU would finish in the 11-3 range, and I was close. The big miss was Oklahoma, as I really thought they were ready. They were not. This year is different though. After a few great recruiting classes, the Noles seem poised to step back into the national spotlight. I said this about the team’s future prospects last summer:

So that brings us to 10-2, heading to the ACC title game. FSU should lose to VT in that game, and the Noles are a total Jekyll/Hyde sort of team in bowl games, so we could possibly see the season end on a 3 game losing streak. Still, 10-4 or 11-3 seems attainable to me in what is essentially the dawn of the next era of FSU football. I think that next year FSU re-enters the national picture again, but this year is just a bit of buildup for that. The offense is back, and once the defense gets back to the levels they’re capable of, FSU will be an ACC and national power again.

I stand by that, and feel like this is the year that national attention is given early and often to the rising stars in Tallahassee.

The good

Where to start? FSU is absolutely loaded with talent and depth at every position imaginable. For me, the real standouts are going to be the defensive line and secondary, two areas that were feast or famine last year. Returning are a boatload of blue chippers who have grown up mentally and especially physically and are ready to simply dominate teams. EJ Manuel is the rising Junior QB who is a dark horse Heisman contender, and is flanked by a super deep stable of running backs, wideouts and tight ends. The offensive linemen, especially both tackles, are All-American contenders.

Again, just simply stacked everywhere. Watch out for LaMarcus Joyner on D, and Nick O’Leary on offense.

The bad

The offensive line is having trouble staying healthy. Chris Thompson, last year’s leading rusher, has had some back issues. That’s about it.

September

Louisiana-Monroe Body bag game. ULM, a Sun Belt team that should have some young talent, won’t be any match for FSU. I just can’t imagine how ULM keeps this game very close. Not only are the Noles going to be bigger, faster and stronger than ULM, I fully expect the team to focus of jumping out fast to get some of the younger guys game experience. I’m not sure it’ll be like some of the early games from last year where the final score was nearly 60-3, but I’m going to say FSU rolls. Backups in the 3rd quarter.  FSU wins by 35+.

Charleston Southern Let’s face it, you could copy and paste what I wrote above to this section. The only difference is the game with Oklahoma looming. Maybe they take their eyes off of this game a bit. FSU wins by 24.

Oklahoma I’m still not sure how I feel about this game. Last year I said FSU would win a close one. I was dead wrong, and it was one of the only games I really considered turning off multiple times. Just a brutal showing in every phase of the game. I’m still not sure about this game, although I do feel like it’s going to be much closer than last time. Oklahoma tends to roll early in the season and then blow a night road game late in the year. This is not that game. OU has so many weapons and a fantastic quarterback in Landry Jones, who is a legit Heisman contender. Throw in one of the top WR units in the nation and the stacked FSU defense is going to be tested early and often, and I’m not sure they’ll be able to hang for the entire game.

The pressure will really be on FSU to control tempo early, get first downs, and get points. I feel like this game could go either way, but it’ll be interesting to see which defense does enough to win this game. I’m picking Oklahoma – but if FSU in fact wins this game, they’re going to the national title game. Mark it down.  Oklahoma by 3.

@ Clemson Let down alert! IF the Noles were to win the game the week before, it’ll be a huge test to go on the road to one of the tougher stadiums to play in. It’ll be a huge test regardless of course, but the ACC scheduling gods were frowning on the boys from Tallahassee when they put together this one-two punch. On to the Tigers, though. Ex-Tulsa coach Chad Morris heads up the Clemson offense, and Tulsa was absolutely insane to watch last year. The 2010 squad ranted in the top 10 scoring, and the top 5 in yards – and folks expect that to translate to Clemson’s offense this year. Tajh Boyd is the new starting quarterback, and he’s a dual threat guy who could give fits to less athletic teams. With that said, I’m pretty confident that FSU will be able to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and that should be the difference in the ball game. Despite the potential for a let down, I think the Noles will win fairly comfortably.  FSU wins by 13.

October

@ Wake Forest And now, cruise control. Wake Forest is coming off of their second consecutive losing season, and the cupboard is starting to look bare for the Deacons. This matchup will be a good opportunity to get into a rhythm for a few easy games before some key ACC games.  FSU wins by 21.

@ Duke Copy, paste.  FSU wins by 21+.

Maryland Big game here. Danny O’Brien is a talented QB and FSU could easily have lost the game to the Terps last year. Both teams have improved since last year, FSU with their talent maturing and Maryland with a new coaching staff who will demand sound fundamentals on every single play. I think this game will be a scary one, with FSU winning late – maybe a field goal deciding the contest.  FSU wins by 3.

NC State Revenge for a game FSU really should have won last year. Driving at the end of the contest, Ponder fumbled a play-action at the end of the game to blow it. NCSt has a lot of veteran starters and are well coached – I’ve always been a fan of Tom O’Brien teams. However, they’re not super talented on defense and their special teams appear to be a weakness. FSU will be too much.  FSU wins by 10.

November

@ Boston College Thursday night with no week off before the game … the ACC scheduling gods are back at it. It’ll come down to which team is ready to play. BC is no slouch but they just don’t have the talent to hang for 4 quarters.  FSU wins by 13.

Miami If UM still has a a team to field, this game would be less than a TD between the teams. Lots of senior talent on this team, and if they are all out there, it could be a lot closer than my prediction. However, I’m not counting on it.  FSU wins by 13.

Virginia This is the last home game of the year for what could be an undefeated FSU team. UVA is getting some great recruits and slowly rebuilding their team, but this isn’t the year for them. This is possibly the easiest home game of the year other than the first 2 patsies. FSU wins by 21.

@ Florida Yeah, Florida is down. Guess what, they still are absolutely loaded with blue chippers at every position. If this game were earlier in the year, I could see FSU winning by a few TDs – but this is both team’s final game of the regular season and I think they’ll have figured out the new offensive and defensive schemes that coaches Muschamp and Weis are adding. A lot will be on the line for this game, and FSU will have a ton to play for on the road against a very tough opponent. FSU in a squeaker.  FSU wins by less than 3.

Summary

The ACC schedule looks like a cakewalk, and I realistically can see FSU winning the ACC with 1 loss to a non conference opponent and going to a BCS bowl game. This team is for real, and they’re still very young everywhere except the offensive line. Expect great things this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw the Noles in the national championship conversation this year, next year, and for years to come.

Georgia Tech 2011 predictions

It’s that time again – college football week 1 is upon us. As I tried last year, I try to predict every game. Last year … let’s just say I was a bit off. I predicted a 10-2 record, going to the Gator or CFA bowl. Whoops.

The good

The defense looks to be much improved over last year’s awful squad – although that’s not really saying much. Further, the B-back and A-back spots are overflowing with talent, and it should be the strength of the team. I think we’ll see Johnson find ways to creatively get all of those young speedy A-backs in space this year as we’re still waiting for consistent WR play. The O-line is deep and young, and should grow into a really solid unit.

The bad

The defense still doesn’t show that it can create sacks or turnovers, and a 3-4 defense is predicated on pressure from various angles. If Tech can’t get pressure with 3 or 4 defenders, it could be another long season. The QB play hasn’t been inspiring yet, with Washington being good but not great.

September

Western Carolina Western Carolina is coming off of an awful 2010 campaign, and the entire team is in disarray. The Catamounts, who are Paul Johnson’s alma mater, are installing a new spread/pistol style offense in the vein of Oklahoma, Oregon and others. Further, they’ve been asking teams for tips on how to defend the Flexbone of Georgia Tech. None of this will matter though, as the only team that can beat Tech on opening night will be Tech.  Tech wins by 4 touchdowns.

@ Middle Tennessee Last year, MTSU came to Atlanta with one of their best players in school history, Dwight Dasher. This athletic quarterback was making waves for his playmaking ability, great decision making, and a lot of folks thought they could come in and steal one from Tech. They nearly did, but on the back of a 4 turnover effort by the GT defense, Tech ran away in the second half with a fairly comfortable win. This year, Middle Tennessee is without Dasher or a capable replacement. Tech’s D should be improved, and I expect this to be another game where the backups get some playing time in anticipation for the big boys.  Tech wins by 3 touchdowns.

Kansas Ah, Kansas. This game was, for most Tech fans last year, the moment where we realized things were not going to be like 2009. The defense couldn’t get off of the field and the offense couldn’t hold onto the ball. To add insult to the road loss, Kansas is and was the worst team in the Big 12 – the week before beating Tech last year, they lost to a FCS school, not even producing a touchdown. This year returns nearly all of the players from last year’s game, with a fairly accurate QB who can scramble, a grinder at running back, and an opportunistic but overall unspectacular defense. If Johnson can’t coach the team up for this game, at home, I’m not sure there’s much hope for this year either.  Tech wins by 7 or less.

North Carolina Two teams have been able to figure out Tech’s offense to some degree in recent years – UNC and Miami. UNC’s defense is absolutely loaded in the front 7 this year with tons of future 1st and 2nd rounders, so I think running the ball might be a tall order. Hopefully the work we’ve seen over the summer with Tevin Washington working on the short passing game to the A-backs, Tech might be able to put pressure on a young secondary. While Washington doesn’t have a strong arm at all, but he is pretty accurate when throwing – kind of the exact opposite of Nesbitt in that regard. Defensively, Tech will be tested by a young but talented QB named Bryn Renner. This highly touted QB hasn’t really done any damage yet, but people expect him to be a quality starter. If GT can get pressure on the young QB early and control the tempo offensively, Tech could win this game. I’d say it’s a toss up, leaning towards UNC though.  UNC wins by 3.

October

@ NC State Last year’s NC State game broke the back of most Tech fans who were expecting any sort of decent season at all. This year’s game will probably be the ACC game that tells you if GT will be an average/above average team or if we’re on our way to another 6-7 sort of campaign. If Tech can beat some of these average teams, they can afford to lose to the more elite squads and still have a good season in what is a transitional year in Atlanta. Gone is Russell Wilson, and in comes Mike Glennon. He’s a talent, but he’s the sort of guy that Tech usually can handle – more of a traditional drop-back style of passer. Tech should be able to run the ball with ease against a pretty soft defense, but the question mark will be Tech’s ability to get off of the field on defense. If they can control the tempo and get some key stops, I think GT could win this game. With it being on the road, I’ll say it’s a toss up with a lean towards GT.  NCST wins by 3.

Maryland Maryland is one year away from being one of the better teams in the ACC. Danny O’Brien is widely thought to be one of the top 3 ACC QBs (not a huge honor but still…), and the skill players are all solid. Defensively, they have a lot of talent and while new coach Randy Edsall isn’t a flashy hire, he’s the sort of guy who will get the most of his team and focus on fundamentals. These teams won’t beat themselves, and the pressure will definitely be on Tech’s defense to put pressure on O’Brien early before he can get into a rhythm. Being at home, I’ll give Tech the nod.  Tech by 10.

@ Virginia Virginia is still in a transitionary period, much like Tech switching defenses and installing a new offense. There’s a ton of talent in Virginia and it’s only a matter of time before UVA is another team to worry about in ACC play. This probably won’t be that year, though. Being on the road, there’s a change Tech drops this one, but I think the grinding running game will be too much for a talented but thin defense.  Tech wins by less than 7.

@ Miami Before the huge scandal dropped in Miami, this wouldn’t be a contest. Miami has talent and even a depleted squad handled GT handily last year in Atlanta. As of right now, Miami is missing it’s starting QB, SS, FS, DE, LB, and WR. Tons of depth will be tested all season long, and while they have the talent to step up, there’s no margin for error or injury for the ‘Canes. These sorts of events usually go one of two ways for teams in turmoil – they either band together and scrape together a solid season, or they completely implode. I’d like to think they’ll fold like a cheap chair, but I think there is still a ton of talent in South Beach to deal with on both sides of the ball. By this time of the season, they’ll know who will be and won’t be playing, so I expect a good effort but depth is an issue. Tech grinds one out and wins a low scoring battle. Tech wins by less than 7.

Clemson Always close.  It’ll be interesting to see if Tech’s D can stop the new up-tempo Chad Morris offense.  Clemson is young but very talented, especially at the skill positions.  I think GT finds a way to run the ball against Clemson and gets enough big plays to hold on.  Tech wins by 7.

November

Virginia Tech My favorite game of the year – it’s always close, and the winner always goes on to win the ACC Coastal. This year should be no exception, as UNC and Miami will be having issues so my feeling is that it’s a 2 team race. Unfortunately, VT is way more talented than GT is this year, with a senior-laden offense and a young, talented defense. The past 4 years the VT defense has gotten gradually worse each season, but even ‘worse’ for VT is a top 25 squad. Most folks expect them to improve this year and be more physical with teams. Tech has always been able to run the ball with some success against the Hokies, and I’m sure this year is no exception. Even on the road last year, Tech was in control of the game before Nesbitt broke his arm. In fact, the game was tied late before that fateful kickoff return for a TD essentially won the game for the Hokies. Gone is Tyrod Taylor, VT’s amazingly talented QB, and in comes Logan Thomas, a huge mountain of a man who is expected to bring a more ‘Cam Newton/Tim Tebow’ style of play to the table. This compliments the speedy David Wilson well, and I expect the running game to be the strength of the offense all year. This one could go either way, but it seems that lately the home team gets the W here. I’ll call it a toss up, lean VT. VT by less than 3.

@ Duke Body bag. Duke is improving and they have some talent on offense, but their defense is laughably bad. Even at Duke, Tech should roll. Tech wins by 17+.

Georgia I think UGA will finish the year near double digit wins, saving Richt’s job in Athens. Doesn’t mean GT can’t run the ball all over UGA like they have in recent years, and as long as they can limit turnovers on offense and play sound defense, I think Tech finally puts it all together and gets another win against their rivals. These games are always close when GT wins, and blowouts when UGA wins. I think GT wins a close one at home. Tech by less than 7.

Summary

That puts tech at 8 wins and 4 losses going into bowl season. Tech hasn’t proven yet they can beat a prepared bowl team, but I think this year they have a shot as they’d be playing a middle-tier school that they should be able to beat up on. God willing, they could get to 9 wins this year, which would be a big turnaround. Even if I miss a few of these games, which is about 100% likely, the feeling I get is that we’ll see an improvement over last year no matter what. Tech has a lot of young talent and this year will be a transition between the last of the old guard of the Chan Gailey era and all of the young folks Johnson has been bringing in. No excuses anymore. Tech isn’t now nor will it be a consistent top 15 team, but they can put together good teams and make 2-3 year runs every decade or so where they are flirting with the top 10 and an ACC title. I think this season is laying the foundation for a young but talented team to get ready for just such a run in the coming few years.

Rdio v. Spotify – Round One

As you may or may not know, Spo­tify launched this week in the US, and I of course jumped on board. I’m going to give Rdio and Spo­tify a fair shake before I decide which to use full time (I reviewed Rdio a while back, and have been an avid user since the ser­vice launched), but the early lead is with Spo­tify even though it’s lack­ing the excel­lent dis­cov­ery tools that Rdio has. Until the full review, my ini­tial thoughts in list form:

Spotify Pros:

  • Awe­some app on the desk­top and mobile
  • Amaz­ing sup­port & website
  • Huge community
  • iPhone app is easy to use, and much better than the Rdio one
  • Easy to add mul­ti­ple songs to a playlist or to your library
  • Abil­ity to share a par­tic­u­lar song / album to friends just by drag­ging the song to your con­tact is amazing
  • Spo­tify caches the music you listen to so it loads faster the next time you play it
  • Dead simple playlist cre­ation & album navigation
  • Non-​blue icons!
  • Abil­ity to sync Spo­tify songs to an iPod 

Rdio Pros:

  • Library is global b/c it’s a web­site – this makes it a lot easier to keep things in sync between my home and work Rdio account.
  • Album driven, as opposed to playlist driven.
  • Great community 
  • Great dis­cov­ery tools (the land­ing page with the ‘heavy rotation’ is the most valu­able fea­ture of the site, along with ‘ recommendations’ and ‘new releases’)
  • You can tailor the library to things you want, which is view­able in the iPhone app
  • Faster development

Spotify Cons:

  • Queue is lost between launches?
  • Queue is hard to under­stand in gen­eral – if you go to ‘play’ an album it tends to play the first track then revert back to the queue.
  • Very playlist driven, so unless you keep your music orga­nized into many playlists, you’re forced to star almost every­thing you’re lis­ten­ing to.
  • Each instance of Spo­tify (mul­ti­ple desk­top apps, iPhone app) is it’s own instance so it can feel dis­jointed as if you need to manage each copy on it’s own.
  • No real ‘metrics’ on what you’ve been lis­ten­ing to a lot.  Last.fm helps with this, but Rdio shines in this area of track­ing what you have been lis­ten­ing to a lot

Rdio Cons:

  • The ‘application’ is really just an opti­mized ver­sion of the web­site. It’s not ter­ri­ble, but there is a lag, and all of the but­tons & inter­ac­tions remind you that you’re on a webpage.
  • The UI of the iPhone app is lacking
  • iPhone app doesn’t allow you to play through/mark played your queue, only one album in queue
  • iPhone app doesn’t allow you to add songs/albums to the queue * only to collections/playlists
  • Adding mul­ti­ple songs to a playlist at once isn’t possible.

Rdio – The Best Cloud Music Service (for Now)

I want to write a bit more about Rdio – a stream­ing music ser­vice that has really altered the way that I listen to music. Rdio allows you to browse a list of music on their site and steam as much as you like via their web inter­face or their free desk­top appli­ca­tion (which hap­pens to be made using Adobe AIR, but that’s a dis­cus­sion for another day) for $5 bucks a month. You can add music to your ‘collection’, basi­cally a place where you can store a list of all of the music you like, make playlists, and queue up albums to listen to. For $10 a month, you get all of the fea­tures already listed plus the abil­ity to stream music to a mobile appli­ca­tion for iOS, Android, etc. For me, this is where the ser­vice becomes truly worth­while. The mobile apps allow you to not only stream music to the devices, but also to down­load as much music as your device has capac­ity to locally store music. This means that you can essen­tially manage your iPhone/iPad/whatever Android you’re using phone’s music col­lec­tion ‘from the cloud’, with access to a ton of music instantly. 


Rdio’s track options – add to col­lec­tion, sync to mobile, share song, etc

On it’s sur­face, Rdio is sim­i­lar to other ser­vices that have come and gone, or ser­vices that are in other coun­tries but aren’t avail­able here (I’m look­ing at you, Spotify…), but of what’s avail­able to us Amer­i­cans right now, it’s hard to com­pete with what this ser­vice offers. I tend to buy an album or two a month at some­where between $5 and $10 dol­lars a pop. With the advent of Rdio, I’ve cut that down sig­nif­i­cantly while also learn­ing to not worry about sync­ing my iPhone up. If I’m ever out and about and remem­ber there’s a song or an album I want to listen to, I can quickly per­form a search on my phone and add it to my col­lec­tion, a playlist, or even sync to my device right then and there. 

Another place that Rdio excels is in social shar­ing and music dis­cov­ery. They’ve man­aged to find the per­fect bal­ance between shar­ing infor­ma­tion about what your friends are lis­ten­ing to with­out beat­ing you over the head with it. Upon log­ging in, you’ll see a screen with 12 album covers that are labeled ‘Heavy Rotation’ – this is a list of the top albums lis­tened to by you and your friends recently. No play counts, no easy way to tie an album to a spe­cific person – just what’s pop­u­lar right now. You can quickly mouse over an item and add it to your col­lec­tion, play it, sync it to your mobile, and more. I’ve found dozens of new bands since using the ser­vice reg­u­larly just because folks I’m friends with are basi­cally cooler than I am and are find­ing new music for me to check out.


The heavy rota­tion view

On top of those social and dis­cov­ery fea­tures, Rdio can be set up to send your lis­tens to Last.fm if you’re that sort of person (I am), thus enabling you to still keep track of every­thing you’ve lis­tened to. This means that now I have two ser­vices that track what I’m lis­ten­ing to and rec­om­mend­ing music to me based on that. Even better, the bar­rier to trying out these new artists is sig­nif­i­cantly reduced, so I’m check­ing out new stuff more often and also dig­ging up old favorites from my high school days with­out wor­ry­ing about wast­ing space on my hard drive. It’s a very fric­tion­less ser­vice that keeps improv­ing, and for $10 a month, is a steal.

That doesn’t mean the ser­vice is per­fect. Rdio hasn’t even been around for a year so they’re still fig­ur­ing things out and flesh­ing out their cat­a­log – and I know that takes time. Legit excuses aside, there are places for improve­ment. There are areas where the iPhone appli­ca­tion doesn’t have access to the same fea­tures as the web appli­ca­tion (things like full access to the queue, the abil­ity to add songs/albums to the queue, playlist creation/search and more), and that can be frus­trat­ing. Addi­tion­ally, what they call a ‘desktop application’ is a bit of an stretch. I cre­ated a Fluid instance of the web page and just use that, as the AIR app doesn’t do much other than just play music. I’m hoping at some point we’ll see a true desk­top appli­ca­tion that emu­lates a lot of the fea­tures you’d see in iTunes – easier playlist cre­ation, queue reorder­ing, and col­lec­tion man­age­ment. Other issues that are already improv­ing greatly are things like over­all music selec­tion, song bitrates, and the over­all web app performance. 

Another issue that is rare and goes to the core of ‘ownership vs. renting’ of music are things like what hap­pens when I get hooked on an album but I want to listen to it while some­where that’s not my com­puter or with my phone/headphones around? Some­thing like an iPod nano comes to mind. Cur­rently, your only option is to buy that album and sync it up to your device. I’d love to see some sort of DRM daemon that runs on your system that allows you to down­load DRM-​limited songs to your com­puter so that you could then sync them to non-​networked play­ers. This is a pipe dream but I think it’d be some­thing worth it to a lot of users – espe­cially folks who run a lot and listen to a ton of music. (obvi­ously I’m not talk­ing about me, I don’t exercise)

When I say it’s the best ‘cloud music ser­vice (for now)’, I’m refer­ring to the rumored entry into the US market by either (and pos­si­bly both) Spo­tify and Apple. Both are estab­lished in their own respec­tive mar­kets more than our friends at Rdio, and I think their entry would shake things up quite a bit. The pos­i­tive, of course, would be that it would also speed up the con­ver­sion of hold­outs to a subscription-​style model. There is a trial avail­able that will give you a chance to see if the ser­vice works for your style before they start billing you – I highly rec­om­mend it to anyone who lis­tens to a lot of music at work or on their iPhone. (or what­ever other smart­phone you may use) If you do end up join­ing, look me up

Pros:

  1. Great selec­tion of music
  2. Mobile appli­ca­tion is fast, easy to use, and makes search­ing for songs and albums very easy
  3. Good music dis­cov­ery tools
  4. Great support
  5. If you even buy an album or two a month this ser­vice will actu­ally save you money
  6. Pandora-​esque artist ‘stations’ where you can just load up an artist and hear related bands

Cons:

  1. The desk­top is basi­cally just an album cover w/ play/pause/volume. I’d love to see some­thing nicer on the desktop
  2. No iPad app yet
  3. Mobile apps don’t have abil­ity to add songs to queue yet, nor can they play through the entire queue of songs
  4. Cur­rently the only way to add an album to a playlist is one song at a time
  5. Moving songs to non-​networked devices is not pos­si­ble at this time
  6. Some songs/albums have issues with some songs only being 30 second pre­views due to licens­ing issues.

Quick thoughts on GT v. Kansas

What a debacle.  GT got embarrassed on a weekend where they really could have set themselves apart as the ONE good ACC team.  Almost everyone else lost, and obviously Tech did the same in a very disappointing effort in all phases of the game.  I’m going to quickly hit a few things that jumped out at me while watching the game:

Offense

2 things are really concerning on the offensive side of the ball, and they both are the reason why the Jackets haven’t been able to break any really big plays this year.

1) The passing game, specifically catching the ball.  I’m not here to defend Joshua Nesbitt – he didn’t look great throwing the ball at all, and he really hasn’t since the Clemson game last year.  The last 3 games have been pretty rough for the GT signal caller.  However, I don’t expect him to complete 70% of his passes for 250 yards every game.  What I do expect is that we’ll hit about 1/3 of the deep passes (over 20 yards or so), and the shorter passes should be near the 55%-65% metric.  Considering Nesbitt throws the ball deep a lot due to the single coverage most teams will show, a solid 50% completion percentage overall would be fine with me.

The problem is wide open A backs and wideouts dropping highly catchable balls.  If Roddy Jones, Stephen Hill, Orwin Smith, and the rest of the outside players can’t catch passes that hit them right in the hands, Tech is in massive trouble.

2) Let me continue dumping on the skill position players and say that the A backs and Wideouts MUST get their assigned player on the ground.  It’s absolutely imperative on every option play or toss sweep that the playside A back get out and cut the linebacker or safety they’re going to block, and the wideout must cut the corner that’s guarding him.  Watch any good running or screen team, and every successful play will have bodies littered on the playside.  Guys know we’re going to cut them, but you have to make sure 100% they’re on the ground.

Not the best video, but an example of a solid cut block:

You have to seal off the perimeter.  You just have to.  You do that, and you’ll get consistent 5, 10, 20 yard plays by the A backs and Nesbitt on the perimeter.  As it currently stands, a safety for Kansas was running free on most plays after defeating the cut and would tackle out perimeter guy after 1 or 2 yards.  We have to get 4+ yards on every running play to keep this offense going.

A lot of offensive issues, but I think overall they’re small and can be solved in time for their next opponent, UNC.

Defense

GT can’t get pressure up the middle, their DT Walls is getting pushed around on every play.  This of course leads to gap control being an issue, which is leading to a lot of the runs’ success.  If you don’t stay in your gap and defend both sides of the gaps you’re assigned to, bad things happen.  Like big runs.

Missed tackles is still an issue.  The short runs turn into huge ones.  Until GT can wrap up, they’ll be a middling defense, regardless of the scheme. Statistically GT’s D is slightly better but only by a few yards.  I think they’ll continue to improve as the year goes on, and the deep pass defense is actually quite good.  The problem is that so far the only way to get any pressure is to bring at least 2 blitzers.  If you don’t get to the QB fast on a 5 man rush, you tend to leave some gaps for the QB to get the ball to.

I can’t count the times the pressure took a little too long to get there against Kansas, and the QB dumped it off to his hot receiver and he gained 10 yards.

Penalties

Penalties kill you.  Penalties killed Tech.  The well-documented holding penalty to start the half set the tone for a disastrous half which went a little something like this:

Exhibit A) Kick return to the 30 nullified by holding, Tech starts at their own 8.  Goes 3 and out.  Punts the ball 13 yards.  Gives up a TD.

Exhibit B) Tech stops KU near midfield on 3rd down.  Called for roughing the passer.  New first down.

Exhibit C) Tech stops KU on 3rd down.  On the ensuing punt, called for roughing the kicker.

You do this sort of crap enough, and you’re going to lose a lot of games.  Tech’s offense didn’t score a ton of points but they had a good day on the stat sheet running the ball.  Almost 40 yards more than their average last year, as a matter of fact.  The defense isn’t quite there yet, but they gave up 315 yards – not exactly world beaters, but it’s not like they got gashed on every play.  They just would maddeningly find ways to keep the KU offense on the field.  Ultimately it led to a loss.

Maybe this is last year’s Miami game where they just played a truly awful game, regrouped, and didn’t lose another game until the UGA contest.  If you look at the schedule, every single team they play for the rest of the year is beatable from here on out – even the teams I said they initially had no chance against.  However, who is this Georgia Tech team?  I’m not sure even they know yet.  They didn’t look like they were ready to play last week, and if they pull that sort of stunt going up to a depleted UNC squad this Saturday, they may come back to town 1-2.

However, if they learn that you can’t take a play off, and you have to finish (as cliche as that may be), this team has all of the ability to come out and use this game as a chance to kick off a really strong run.

Quick thoughts on GT v. SC State game

I already posted my thoughts on the offensive effort so I’ll add a few bullet points about the entire game.

Offense

Great reads by all 3 QBs that played.  Nesbitt made the cleanest reads and was one step ahead on every run.  Everyone’s already talked about throwing the ball and I was honestly a bit surprised they didn’t spend more time working on that in live game action.  You figure that if you are going to try to air it out a bit, why not do it in game one?  Who knows.  In any event I’m not that worried about it (yet).  The first game of the season is always a bit unpredictable.

Looks like we have a lot more depth on the offensive line this year.  I’m not trying to make excuses for the Iowa game – GT got their butt handed to them in every phase of the game.  However, they had a skeleton crew at OL in that game, and it certainly didn’t help.  Hopefully this year come bowl season the depth can help keep the team competitive.

The A-backs and WRs did not do a good job blocking the corners and linebackers on the perimeter.  Despite that, Nesbitt was able to rip off huge runs but this is against lesser competition.  UNC, Miami, or VT will shut down our perimeter game if  Roddy Jones and company don’t seal off the edges better.

Defense

Overall, the entire effort has to be taken with a grain of salt.  It’s the first game in a 3-4 with frankly, the wrong personnel.  We’re undersized at defensive tackle and ILB, and this means the only way for Tech to really dominate is to have flawless technique when engaging the offense and playing smart.  Maybe it was the heat, maybe it was the competition (or lack thereof), but I can’t even count how many plays I watched the defensive tackle over-pursue to one side or the other and then see the running back run thru the hole where the tackle used to be.  That has to be cleaned up.

To Groh & the rest of the staff’s credit, they got it cleaned up by the half.  I liked the effort by the guys to maintain leverage at the point of attack once they had a chance to see what a bunch of big 300 pounders would try to do to them on every play.  The bottom line is that GT’s defense isn’t going to dominate every game, but they should do two things:

a) play more disciplined, focused, consistent defense

b) adjust based on what the other team is doing

Last year’s defense did none of that.  They looked lost in over half of the games they played (Miami, FSU, both Clemson games, UGA, Iowa all come to mind) and the staff did nothing to adjust to what the other teams were doing.   I don’t guarantee Tech will even be in the top 50 defenses in the country, but there is no way in hell Groh will ever allow the sort of disaster that happened against UGA last year, where they ran essentially the same 3 plays the entire game, and the Jackets did nothing to adjust at all.

And finally…

Solid but unspectacular win for the Jackets.  Expectations have been raised in Atlanta, so a lot of people found a ton to complain about (myself included).  But overall, it’s the first game of the year, two of their best playmakers on both sides of the ball are being replaced, and they are running an entirely new defensive scheme.  Mistakes are going to be made.  But good coaches correct them and the next week they are improved.

I really do believe GT is going to stomp the life out of Kansas this weekend.

2010 FSU Football Forecast

So, if you’ve followed FSU football or college football, the fortunes of the Noles kind of went like this:  The 70s were a building decade, the 80s saw the Noles come into their own as a national power, and the 90s were a decade dominated by FSU.  By 2000, the team began to lose it’s mojo, and the late 00s Noles were an afterthought.  Enter Jimbo Fisher & Mark Stoops. Both men are highly respected and have a history of success everywhere they’ve coached.  I expect the first year to be a bit of up and down, but ultimately building to the 2010-2020 decade to be a decade full of FSU dominance.  And away we go…

09/04/10 Samford (Win)

Well, looks like I basically called this one (FSU won 59-6, I had said 56-3).  A fairly dominant effort in every phase of the game by the Noles – they blocked a kick, ran one back for a TD, Ponder threw 4 TDs in a half, and the running game was able to rip off yards by the bunch.  A good start to the season.

09/11/10 @ Oklahoma (Win)

I feel like FSU’s got a shot here.  I’m going to say they win, but I’m the least sure about this game of any all year.  Noles win by less than a TD.  If, and this is a huge if, the Noles can stop the Oklahoma running game, I think they do enough in the other phases to win the game.  Oklahoma has a potent offense but has lost a lot of talent in the past 2 years.  They keep on reloading, but I feel like the Noles can do enough to win on the road.

09/18/10 BYU (Win)

FSU is just too fast for BYU.  Watch the pass rush for the Noles to absolutely overwhelm BYU.  FSU wins by 28.

9/25/10 Wake Forest (Win)

This game could get ugly, fast.  FSU should just run by Wake, running up the score and getting the backups in.  FSU by 5 touchdowns.

10/2/10 @ UVA (Win)

UVA is a team being rebuilt and I think they just don’t have the horses on defense to slow down FSU’s attack.   FSU should be able to spread the field, throw tons of screens and just abuse the corners, getting huge yards after the catch.  FSU doesn’t win as big as you’d think, as they have backups in after the half, focusing on Miami.  FSU still scores 50+ for the 3rd time of the season.

10/9/10 @ Miami (Win)

This game is the beginning of the tough mid stretch for the Noles.  Other than Oklahoma, there really hasn’t been any real competition yet.  But the next few games feature Miami, BC, Clemson and UNC.  Going on the road to Miami is never an easy task, but I think that FSU is due to finally contain the big game passing of Jacory Harris.  This is the first game in 4 or 5 years that both teams will really be competitive top 25 teams, so this could be a great one.  FSU wins late, in a close one.  They’re always close.

10/16/10 Boston College (Win)

This one really could go either way.  In my mind, the winner of this game should go to the ACC title game assuming neither slip up anywhere else.

BC is stout on defense, with two of the best linebackers in the nation.  They should play well enough to really slow down the FSU attack and keep the game very close.  BC’s running game is nothing to sneeze at, and I see them attacking FSU’s tackles head on, and wearing the smaller guys down.  FSU by less than 10.

10/28/10 @ NC State (Win)

I look for a repeat of last year’s game, where neither defense seemed interested in stopping the other.  FSU scores 50+, but gives up 4 or 5 TDs of their own.

11/06/10 UNC (Win)

I fully expect UNC to give FSU a run for their money, but ultimately the forthcoming suspensions will be too much for the Heels to handle.  FSU wins by 14, setting up a huge game with Clemson.

11/13/10 Clemson (Loss)

FSU’s going to be riding high and I feel like Clemson has this rare ability to ruin FSU’s season almost every year.  Watch them to do it again.  By now, both teams will know who they are and what they’re good at, and I think Clemson’s offense will be a very potent attack that will be hard for the Noles to stop.  FSU loses by 10 on a late big play by Clemson dashing any hopes for a comeback.  Close, but just not enough.

11/20/10 @ Maryland (Win)

Maryland is a team in freefall, and FSU will put them out of their misery – and clenching a berth in the ACC championship game in the process.  FSU by 17.

11/27/10 UF (Loss)

This should be the game that makes this a rivalry again.  The past few years have been an utter embarasment for the Seminoles, with UF just blowing them out.  The tide is beginning to turn though, with FSU finally recruiting like it’s the 90s, they have some continuity on offense and defense, and UF realizes they don’t really have a QB that’s perfectly suited to their offense like Tebow was.  That doesn’t mean UF is going to stink, mind you.  This is still one of the best, if not the best, programs in the nation over the past 10 years.  However, I think that the pendulum is beginning to swing back.

FSU’s defense should be able to contain the spread option by this time of the year, and that alone will keep the game competitive.  UF’s defense will also stifle the running game of FSU, turning this game into essentially a showdown between Ponder and Brantley.  I think you know who I think should win that contest.

However, Florida is still Florida, and FSU is just a program that’s back on the rise.  Championship teams find ways to win big games like this, and UF is a championship team.  FSU isn’t (yet).  With that said, I see UF winning a close game that renews the rivalry and makes next year’s game that much bigger.

So that brings us to 10-2, heading to the ACC title game.  FSU should lose to VT in that game, and the Noles are a total Jekyll/Hyde sort of team in bowl games, so we could possibly see the season end on a 3 game losing streak.  Still, 10-4 or 11-3 seems attainable to me in what is essentially the dawn of the next era of FSU football.  I think that next year FSU re-enters the national picture again, but this year is just a bit of buildup for that.  The offense is back, and once the defense gets back to the levels they’re capable of, FSU will be an ACC and national power again.

2010 GT Football Forecast

Holy cow, the first games are tonight.  I’ll post my FSU prediction tomorrow, but here’s my 2010 GT forecast.  Let me know what you think.

9/4/10 South Carolina State (Win)

First game of the year – I think the offense will roll, and we’ll see backups soon after halftime on offense.  The defense will be tested early by a better team that you’d think (10-2 last year, but in the MEAC).  Tech rolls, wins by 4 TDs.

9/11/10 @ The University of Kansas (Win)

This game has all of the markings of a blowout win.  UK’s rebuilding on defense, they’re still trying to figure out who their QB is on offense, and the only real bright spot is their running back.  Having a great back doesn’t help if you’re down by 21 at the half.  Tech wins by 3 TDs.

9/18/10 @ The University of North Carolina (Win)

I wouldn’t say this is a ‘trap’ game per se, UNC is ranked for crying out loud.  But, the media has been all over the heels because of the scandals surrounding the team.  Even if they’re still missing some of their best defenders, this is one of the best defenses in the nation.  I think GT will do enough to win, but it could definitely go either way.  Tech by 10.

9/25/10 North Carolina State University (Win)

NCSU is awful on defense.  Just awful. Tech is glad to be back home.  Tech coasts, we might see backups again pretty early.  We might see 50+ points on the board in this game from GT, and a good 30 from the ‘pack.

10/2/10 @ Wake Forest University (Win)

Wake always plays GT close it seems, and I don’t see this game being any different.  Despite the fact that the Deacs are trying to rework their offense after losing their 16 year starter at QB, they should be a formidable offensive opponent.  Tech wins a close game, but not as close as last year.  Tech by less than a TD.

10/9/10 The University of Virginia (Win)

This could be brutal.  UVA is trying to rework their offense and switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 under their new head coach Mike London, and Al Groh, GT’s new defensive coordinator, is UVA’s old coach (fired last year).  Expect a bit of emotional play in this one.  Tech by 21+.

10/16/10 Middle Tennessee State University (Win)

I would say GT by 100 here, but I just could see the team looking ahead to the ‘real’ stretch starting to cause an issue.  Tech wins comfortably, we see some backups get some playing time, and hopefully a healthy team going into the next week.  Tech by 17.

10/23/10 @ Clemson University (Loss *)

CU lost 2 amazing playmakers in Spiller and Ford, and it’s hard to replace arguably the best ACC back in the past 20 years.  However, prepare to hear the name Andre Ellington a lot over the next few years. The guy is a stud, and will only get better over time. The offense won’t slip as much as you’d think, this game is on the road, and GT is just due to drop a close one to Clemson.  On top of that, GT has a propensity to win one game every year they shouldn’t, and lose one they shouldn’t.  On paper, GT will be undefeated coming into this game, more talented at most positions, and should win.  But I think Clemson wins by less than a TD.

11/4/10 @ VT (Loss *)

This game will be close, and in my mind whichever team’s defense improves the most by this game will win.  VT’s offense is going to be multi-dimensional, tough as nails, and will run the ball down your throat all game.  Then, when they try to pass it, Tyrod Taylor will dance around in the pocket avoiding pressure for what seems like 5 minutes.  They just keep the chains moving.  Sound like another team we know?

Whichever team can force punts and get the ball in their offense’s hands will pull this one out.  I think GT’s D will make great strides this year, but something tells me VT does just enough to pull this one out.

VT wins by 10.

11/13/10 University of Miami-Florida (Win *)

2 straight ACC losses has coach pretty peeved, and I sense a big home win against a highly ranked UM team to get the team back on track.  Miami has a lot of talent but I think the 3-4 scheme will be really effective against this team, as Jacory Harris wilts under blitzing pressure and turns the ball over a lot.  Tech wins by 10.

11/20/10 Duke University (Win)

Cruise control after a big win last week.  All eyes on UGA.  Duke is improving, but they just don’t have the horses to compete on either side of the ball yet.  Tech by 21.

11/27/10 @ University of Georgia (Win *)

It’s amazing how much GT’s goals have shifted in the past few years.  This game is still huge, but Tech’s focus has shifted to winning titles, and there is no title for this game.  However, if they end up losing 2 ACC contests late in the year, the Jackets won’t have much to play for, and UGA should have 3 losses at this point.  This game could go either way, but I think that late in the game Nesbitt’s experience will be the difference in the game.  Tech wins with a late TD.  This might be the last time for a few years Tech has a shot at beating UGA in my opinion – they’ve got a lot of young talent coming along but this is a transitional year for them – so hopefully they take advantage of it.

So yeah, that puts Tech at 10-2, just a game out of the ACC title game.  I think we’ll see VT from the Coastal v. FSU from the Atlantic.  If, IF this were to take place, GT might be an at large BCS team, but I’m thinking we might see a Gator bowl or Chick Fil A  bowl sort of year.

The last 4 out of 5 games have an asterisk next to them.  That’s me hedging a bit.  I think that GT will split those games 2-2 somehow.  The results are my best bet, but I could see them beating Clemson on the road and dropping the home game to Miami, or really any other odd combination of 2-2 there.  They’re all ‘winnable’ games, but I just don’t see GT having enough talent to pull all of them out.

3-4 defense, demystified

The 3-4 defensive mission statement:

The 3-4 defense is all about confusion.  Using strong linemen to occupy the offensive line at the point of attack, athletic linebackers are able to attack from various angles to pressure the quarterback or stuff the run.
The 4-3 usually relies on the down linemen to penetrate.  This penetration by the linemen disrupt running plays & put pressure on the quarterback as well.  The defenders will line up in gaps and attack those holes when the play starts.  In the 4-3, the men in front of you are simply obstacles to get around if you’re a linemen.  You want to ‘defend the run on the way to the quarterback’ in most 4-3 defensive schemes.  The scheme, as far as the down linemen are concerned, is about speed, agility, and athleticism.

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However, the 3-4 is based on strength, grit and leverage if you’re a defensive linemen.  Instead of lining up in a gap between two linemen (often referred to as a ‘one gap’ defender), all 3 linemen play what is called a ‘two gap’ style of defense.  Instead of lining up in or near a gap, being responsible for anything that comes through that hole, a two gapper lines up directly in front of the lineman he is to attack,and is responsible for controlling both the gap to the left and the right of the man on offense.  This is obviously much more physically demanding, and requires players who are much larger and stronger than their 4-3 counterparts.  A lot of the time, 4-3 defensive tackles end up playing 3-4 defensive end.   As you can see, the responsibilities for each lineman essentially double in the 3-4:

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Occupying multiple offensive linemen like this open up all sorts of opportunities for the linebackers and the defense. To make the 3-4 engine ‘go’, the nose tackle (the middle defensive lineman) must command a double team.  This will open up a gap for blitzers to come through.  If the nose tackle doesn’t command a double team, a lot of what follows is moot.  Below is an example of an offensive blocking scheme against a 3-4 line:

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As you can see, the offensive guard and center both attack the nose tackle, and the offensive tackles both engage the defensive ends.  There is on ‘free’ blocker for the offense, who kind of chips off of the end.

Traditionally, teams will rush the 3 linemen and bring one or maybe two linebackers on a blitz, while playing zone coverage behind the blitz.  In other words, the players that do not rush the passer will stay back and guard and area of the field, anticipating a quick throw from the quarterback under duress from the unblocked rusher.  Let’s presume the offense is running a pass play, uses the above blocking scheme, and the defense called a simple ‘overload blitz’ coming off of the edge.  That would look something like this:

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As you can see, the blitzers overwhelm one side of the field, with the players behind the play dropping back and waiting for the quarterback to throw (if he has time).  Because the nose guard has occupied two blockers, holes develop that allow linebackers to slip through, causing all sorts of chaos before the offense can really even get the play started.  However, a lot of the time offenses can do an OK job of defending against just one or two free blitzers.  That’s where something even more disruptive comes into play.  Zone blitzes can be run out of a 4-3 or a 3-4, but it’s especially effective when you have one extra linebacker to work with.  Zone blitzes usually take at least one person that you expect to rush, drop them back into pass coverage, while overloading one side of the field with rushers.

Let’s assume again that we’re working from this basic blocking scheme:

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Instead of all 3 linemen rushing, the end on our left will drop back into coverage, and the 3 linebackers from that side of the field will blitz.  2 of them will rush immediately, while one will delay, waiting for the offensive linemen to react to the first wave, and then running around those blockers.

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These sorts of plays are textbook 3-4, and what make the entire scheme so disruptive.  The problem of course is getting the right players.  You need big, strong defensive linemen.  You can’t take a play off, you have to come to fight every play, and you have to work to occupy multiple linemen on every play.  You also need linebackers who are fast, strong, and smart.  The middle two linebackers especially must be larger than normal linebackers, as they are taking on offensive linemen more often than their counterparts in a 4-3 (4-3 linebackers usually are in pass coverage, or guarding tight ends or running backs, but rarely engaging linemen directly).

If, and that’s a big if in the college game, you’re able to get the right players in place, you can really cause problems for opposing teams.  It’s very similar to Paul Johnson’s offense in that teams just can’t effectively prepare for what they’re going to see in such short time, and it usually will lead to breakdowns.  These breakdowns should become turnovers, and help Tech win a lot of games with an already potent offense.

I’ll go into more detail about GT’s exact implementation, the types of players needed and if Tech actually has them before the first game next Saturday.

By all means, let me know if anything didnt’ make any sense or you’d like me to go into further detail.